Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:03:25
Price is range-bound with balanced liquidity and no trend catalyst, so there is no strong entry edge.
Unified market view
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 55%
Price at model run 45¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:03:25
Live best ask 45¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:59
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price is range-bound with balanced liquidity and no trend catalyst, so there is no strong entry edge.
Watch triggers
- Flat 1h/1d history
- Narrow 1-cent spread
- Only mild bid depth advantage
Why not now
Price is range-bound with balanced liquidity and no trend catalyst, so there is no strong entry edge.
Revisit when
Flat 1h/1d history · Narrow 1-cent spread · Only mild bid depth advantage
Execution guard
Price 45¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $279,497. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:59
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
45¢Volume (24h) ?
$8,021Liquidity ?
$279,497Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-4.7%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
44¢ 24,356.74
43¢ 55,300.2
42¢ 5,847.16
41¢ 7,942.99
40¢ 3,608
Asks
45¢ 18,089.9
46¢ 39,343.38
47¢ 12,130.53
48¢ 14,841.85
49¢ 22,228.16
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:10 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:10 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:11 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 44.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 06:03:01
The market is tightly priced and has been flat for days, so the edge is too small to justify an active trade.
Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 00:03:19
Price is range-bound with tight spread and mixed depth; any advantage is small and not strong enough to buy aggressively.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:22
Slight bearish edge on Yes at 0.44, with the market stable and bid/ask depth balanced near the midpoint.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/2/2026, 12:02:51
Tiny positive edge versus current price, with reasonable liquidity and supportive depth on the bid. Upside is limited, so this is a cautious buy rather than a strong conviction trade.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.