Unified market view

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 64%

Price at model run 89¢ Model run: 8/10/2026, 00:01:49

Live best ask 89¢ Live update: 8/10/2026, 01:00:04

Model gpt-5.4-mini

The market is already priced near the upper end, with only slight upward momentum and no clear mispricing versus orderbook depth.

Watch triggers

Best ask 0.89 vs last 0.89
Weekly price only up 0.03
No strong short-term volatility signal

Why not now

The market is already priced near the upper end, with only slight upward momentum and no clear mispricing versus orderbook depth.

Revisit when

Best ask 0.89 vs last 0.89 · Weekly price only up 0.03 · No strong short-term volatility signal

Execution guard

Price 89¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $542,437. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/10/2026, 01:00:04

Signal

Buy

Best ask ?

89¢

Volume (24h) ?

$103,863

Liquidity ?

$542,437

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

68.2%

Momentum ?

1.1%

Volatility ?

0.1%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

88¢ 10,347.26

87¢ 65,009.16

86¢ 164,038.75

85¢ 96,502.24

84¢ 23,656

Asks

89¢ 25,620.2

90¢ 13,343.24

91¢ 10,644.49

92¢ 7,446.43

93¢ 10,831.97

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/10/2026, 00:35:10 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:37:25 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:39:10 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:41:11 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:43:09 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:45:10 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:47:10 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:49:07 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:51:10 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:53:22 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:55:10 88.5¢

8/10/2026, 00:56:10 88.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 8/10/2026, 00:01:49

The market is already priced near the upper end, with only slight upward momentum and no clear mispricing versus orderbook depth.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · Yes 8/9/2026, 17:51:55

$20,000 88.79¢

Buy · Yes 8/9/2026, 16:57:30

$20,000 88¢