Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
11¢
The Yes price at 0.11 implies roughly an 11% chance, but the order book leans against it and the recent history is flat to slightly weaker over the week. With Democrats needing to flip both chambers for Yes to resolve, the current pricing already looks close to fair but still modestly rich on the bullish side.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes · 1-week trend is slightly lower · Price remains pinned near 0.11
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
67%
The Yes price at 0.11 implies roughly an 11% chance, but the order book leans against it and the recent history is flat to slightly weaker over the week. With Democrats needing to flip both chambers for Yes to resolve, the current pricing already looks close to fair but still modestly rich on the bullish side.