Unified market view

Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

No directional position

Data gap

Execution state

Watch

Model edge Maja Chwalinska → 0%

Confidence 32%

Price at model run 34.5¢ Model run: 10/18/2026, 12:00:32

Live best ask 54¢ Live update: 10/18/2026, 12:43:05

Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline

Model OpenAI

No independent player-form or injury evidence supports a probability distinct from the market. The displayed price, orderbook midpoint, and recent history conflict amid sharp volatility, so no reliable edge is detected.

Watch triggers

Quotes and recent history converge
Credible injury or lineup news
Volatility settles

Why not now

Revisit when

Quotes and recent history converge · Credible injury or lineup news · Volatility settles

Execution guard

Price 54¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $82,535. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 10/18/2026, 12:43:05

Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.

Price & order-book rules

Watch

Best ask ?

54¢

Volume (24h) ?

$589,830

Liquidity ?

$82,535

Open interest ?

$412,181

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-15.8%

Momentum ?

10.1%

Volatility ?

10.5%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Maja Chwalinska

Bids

50¢ 589.82

49¢ 978.8

48¢ 3,797.98

47¢ 15,029.64

46¢ 5,306.8

Asks

51¢ 6,134.12

52¢ 8,377.16

53¢ 9,470.26

54¢ 5,092.37

55¢ 6,306.71

Price history

Interval: 6h

10/18/2026, 12:21:12 43.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:23:19 47.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:25:20 39.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:27:19 33.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:29:20 33.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:31:19 48.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:33:18 47.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:35:13 52.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:37:19 52.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:39:19 55.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:41:20 53.5¢

10/18/2026, 12:42:24 54.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Maja Chwalinska → 0% 10/18/2026, 12:00:32

The evidence does not establish a reliable divergence from fair value: quotes and history disagree, and recent repricing is unusually volatile.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.