Unified market view

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

No directional position

Data gap

Execution state

Watch

Model edge Yes → 0%

Confidence 42%

Price at model run 33.75¢ Model run: 9/28/2026, 12:07:48

Live best ask 39.9¢ Live update: 9/28/2026, 14:32:39

Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline

Model OpenAI

At roughly 34%, the market already reflects a substantial chance. The sharp weekly rally and bid-heavy book show demand but do not independently establish the outcome, so no reliable probability edge is identified.

Watch triggers

Official France Football updates
Material performance or award news
A substantial change in price or liquidity

Why not now

Revisit when

Official France Football updates · Material performance or award news · A substantial change in price or liquidity

Execution guard

Price 39.9¢ · spread 1.4 pts · liquidity $70,492. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/28/2026, 14:32:39

Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.

Price & order-book rules

Leans higher

Best ask ?

39.9¢

Volume (24h) ?

$129,011

Liquidity ?

$70,492

Open interest ?

$2,903,080

Spread ?

1.3¢

Depth imbalance ?

14.6%

Momentum ?

17.4%

Volatility ?

0.4%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

38.6¢ 180.45

38.5¢ 111

38.3¢ 300

38.1¢ 294

38¢ 1,020

Asks

39.9¢ 149.99

40¢ 650

40.3¢ 187

40.8¢ 333.33

40.9¢ 100

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/28/2026, 14:09:16 36.3¢

9/28/2026, 14:11:16 36.3¢

9/28/2026, 14:13:16 36.3¢

9/28/2026, 14:15:17 36.85¢

9/28/2026, 14:17:17 37.05¢

9/28/2026, 14:19:15 38.5¢

9/28/2026, 14:21:16 38.5¢

9/28/2026, 14:23:11 39.05¢

9/28/2026, 14:25:19 39.1¢

9/28/2026, 14:27:13 39.1¢

9/28/2026, 14:29:16 39.2¢

9/28/2026, 14:30:18 39.2¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes → 0% 9/28/2026, 12:07:48

The sharp repricing and bid imbalance indicate demand, but neither establishes fair value; without independent award evidence, the estimated probability stays near market.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.