Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:03:19
Yes appears overpriced versus recent trend and deep ask-side liquidity; market may continue to mean-revert lower absent new Yamal dominance news.
Unified market view
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 74%
Price at model run 21.9¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:03:19
Live best ask 21.5¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:34
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Yes appears overpriced versus recent trend and deep ask-side liquidity; market may continue to mean-revert lower absent new Yamal dominance news.
Watch triggers
- 1w price down 3.4 pts
- Orderbook asks far heavier than bids
- No fresh positive momentum
Why not now
Yes appears overpriced versus recent trend and deep ask-side liquidity; market may continue to mean-revert lower absent new Yamal dominance news.
Revisit when
1w price down 3.4 pts · Orderbook asks far heavier than bids · No fresh positive momentum
Execution guard
Price 21.5¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $192,511. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:34
Signal
SellBest ask ?
21.5¢Volume (24h) ?
$12,021Liquidity ?
$192,511Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
-48.4%Momentum ?
-2.3%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
21.4¢ 1,214.13
21.3¢ 2,250
21.2¢ 3,101.09
21.1¢ 350
21¢ 5,454.09
Asks
21.5¢ 94.83
21.7¢ 21,504.9
21.8¢ 650
22¢ 12,637.17
22.5¢ 660
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:12 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:09 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:22 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:12 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:08 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:11 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:08 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:10 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:12 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:10 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 21.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 21.45¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:02:41
The current price looks a bit rich relative to recent price action and orderbook pressure, so fading Yes has slight positive expectancy.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:03:07
Current price appears efficient versus the recent drift and orderbook; no strong mispricing stands out.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:02:40
Price is efficient near 0.21 with a tight spread and no clear catalyst. Slight bearish tilt on Yes is not strong enough to warrant a trade.
Yes ↑ +1% 8/2/2026, 12:03:05
There is only a small positive edge and the market has recently drifted lower; liquidity is decent but current pricing already reflects much of the baseline chance.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.