Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:02:51
No clear mispricing: recent drift is mixed, spread is tight, and orderbook is strongly balanced toward no rather than yes. Edge is modestly negative but not enough for a strong sell at current levels.
Unified market view
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 53.1¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:51
Live best ask 51.9¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:47:04
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear mispricing: recent drift is mixed, spread is tight, and orderbook is strongly balanced toward no rather than yes. Edge is modestly negative but not enough for a strong sell at current levels.
Watch triggers
- Yes price is slightly elevated
- Ballon d'Or is highly competitive
- Orderbook favors No liquidity
Why not now
No clear mispricing: recent drift is mixed, spread is tight, and orderbook is strongly balanced toward no rather than yes. Edge is modestly negative but not enough for a strong sell at current levels.
Revisit when
Yes price is slightly elevated · Ballon d'Or is highly competitive · Orderbook favors No liquidity
Execution guard
Price 51.9¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $395,186. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:47:04
Signal
SellBest ask ?
51.9¢Volume (24h) ?
$27,593Liquidity ?
$395,186Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
-60.6%Momentum ?
-2.3%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
51.8¢ 99.97
51.6¢ 586.5
51.5¢ 1,700.01
51.3¢ 200.97
51.2¢ 2,000
Asks
51.9¢ 17,400.52
52¢ 500
52.6¢ 60
52.9¢ 528
53¢ 187
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:11 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 51.85¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 06:02:54
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the current setup: recent run-up is extended, while depth and imbalance favor No more than the market price reflects.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:02:55
Yes appears slightly overbought relative to orderbook and the event is still far away, so fading the current price offers better risk-reward than buying.
Yes ↓ -7% 8/2/2026, 18:02:34
Mild negative edge versus current price, plus orderbook leans against further upside; with no momentum or volatility signal, fading the current price is preferred.
Yes ↓ -12% 8/2/2026, 12:02:57
The market looks modestly overvalued on Yes relative to fundamentals and orderbook imbalance, so fading the current price offers better value than buying.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.