Yes → 0% 9/18/2026, 12:02:05
No clear divergence from the market-implied probability is evident.
Unified market view
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
No directional position
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Watch
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 25¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:02:05
Live best ask 27¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:57:00
Model OpenAI
The Yes price is 0.25 after a strong weekly rise, but it has recently stabilized and eased from its short-term high. Balanced order-book depth and limited event-specific information provide no reliable basis for estimating a probability materially different from the market price.
Watch triggers
- Verified resignation or removal news
- Sustained break above 0.30
- Sustained decline below 0.20
Why not now
The Yes price is 0.25 after a strong weekly rise, but it has recently stabilized and eased from its short-term high. Balanced order-book depth and limited event-specific information provide no reliable basis for estimating a probability materially different from the market price.
Revisit when
Verified resignation or removal news · Sustained break above 0.30 · Sustained decline below 0.20
Execution guard
Price 27¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $91,934. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:57:00
Model stance
Leans higherBest ask ?
27¢Volume (24h) ?
$55,803Liquidity ?
$91,934Open interest ?
$725,669Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
11.6%Momentum ?
8.2%Volatility ?
0.4%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
26¢ 2,517.83
25¢ 44,604.13
24¢ 6,815.89
23¢ 5,678.04
22¢ 638.88
Asks
27¢ 7,979.24
28¢ 14,251.37
29¢ 13,884.09
30¢ 9,844.29
31¢ 1,750
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:31:17 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:33:17 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:35:15 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:37:16 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:17 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:17 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:16 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:18 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:17 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:32 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:16 26.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:52:17 26.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 9/18/2026, 06:01:51
Recent repricing raises uncertainty, but short-term stabilization and opposing order-book pressure provide no clear valuation gap.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/18/2026, 00:01:31
The model estimates Yes slightly below its market-implied probability after recent momentum-driven repricing.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 18:02:34
The observed price appears broadly consistent with the available evidence, despite recent momentum.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 12:02:41
No clear mispricing is evident: orderbook support is offset by recent softening and substantial uncertainty over German political developments.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/18/2026, 11:58:16
$13,000 94.76¢