Yes → 0% 10/11/2026, 18:00:44
There is no clear divergence from the market-implied probability, while the supplied political fundamentals are sparse.
Unified market view
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
No directional position
Data gapExecution state
Watch
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 48%
Price at model run 33.5¢ Model run: 10/11/2026, 18:00:44
Live best ask 34¢ Live update: 10/11/2026, 20:44:06
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline
Model OpenAI
The Yes price is about 33.5%, and the supplied data contains no polling, coalition, or candidate information to support a distinct probability estimate. Recent price movements and book imbalance are not sufficient evidence of a durable mispricing.
Watch triggers
- Credible polling shifts Netanyahu’s support materially.
- Coalition negotiations change his path to a majority.
- Election results or appointment developments emerge.
Why not now
The Yes price is about 33.5%, and the supplied data contains no polling, coalition, or candidate information to support a distinct probability estimate. Recent price movements and book imbalance are not sufficient evidence of a durable mispricing.
Revisit when
Credible polling shifts Netanyahu’s support materially. · Coalition negotiations change his path to a majority. · Election results or appointment developments emerge.
Execution guard
Price 34¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $354,443. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 10/11/2026, 20:44:06
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
WatchBest ask ?
34¢Volume (24h) ?
$195,540Liquidity ?
$354,443Open interest ?
$3,705,512Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
28.6%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.4%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No directional setup under these rules
Rule notes
- Price momentum and order-book depth do not jointly meet the directional thresholds.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
33¢ 28,214.1
32¢ 10,345.6
31¢ 106,952.67
30¢ 45,617.04
29¢ 61,829.4
Asks
34¢ 25,165.34
35¢ 40,457.79
36¢ 41,591.42
37¢ 21,765.09
38¢ 11,572.8
Price history
Interval: 6h
10/11/2026, 20:17:16 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:19:22 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:21:22 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:23:22 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:25:27 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:27:17 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:29:23 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:31:23 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:33:23 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:35:24 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:37:30 33.5¢
10/11/2026, 20:38:23 33.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 10/10/2026, 06:05:04
No clear divergence from the 35.5% market price is supported by the available evidence.
Yes → 0% 10/9/2026, 18:04:47
No clear divergence from the 36.5% market estimate is supported by these data; balanced depth and recent price movement alone are insufficient.
Yes → 0% 10/8/2026, 12:05:08
No clear divergence from the market price is detectable from orderbook and price history alone; political and coalition developments could materially change the odds.
Yes → 0% 10/7/2026, 12:00:47
No clear divergence from fair value is detectable; the recent price and depth signals do not outweigh the uncertainty around the election.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 10/11/2026, 14:24:12
$7,482 34.64¢
Buy · Yes 10/11/2026, 14:20:52
$5,990 35¢
Buy · Yes 10/11/2026, 13:56:01
$5,900 34.18¢
Sell · Yes 10/11/2026, 13:55:24
$5,904 40.42¢
Buy · Yes 10/11/2026, 13:55:04
$5,970 40.87¢