Yes ↑ +3% 8/27/2026, 18:01:02
The Yes price appears modestly below fair value, but the edge is small and can vanish quickly if coalition dynamics shift or Netanyahu’s path weakens. Reassess on major election, coalition, or lega...
Unified market view
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Watch
Model edge Yes ↑ +3%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 29¢ Model run: 8/27/2026, 18:01:02
Live best ask 29¢ Live update: 8/27/2026, 19:28:08
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes price appears modestly below fair value, but the edge is small and can vanish quickly if coalition dynamics shift or Netanyahu’s path weakens. Reassess on major election, coalition, or lega...
Watch triggers
- Recent Yes price uptick
- Ask depth exceeds bid depth
- Moderate bullish short-term drift
Why not now
The Yes price appears modestly below fair value, but the edge is small and can vanish quickly if coalition dynamics shift or Netanyahu’s path weakens. Reassess on major election, coalition, or lega...
Revisit when
Recent Yes price uptick · Ask depth exceeds bid depth · Moderate bullish short-term drift
Execution guard
Price 29¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $119,440. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 8/27/2026, 19:28:08
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
29¢Volume (24h) ?
$159,660Liquidity ?
$119,440Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-34.0%Momentum ?
3.6%Volatility ?
2.4%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
28¢ 42.83
27¢ 959.32
26¢ 3,819.85
25¢ 2,576.51
24¢ 433
Asks
29¢ 5
30¢ 1,061.39
31¢ 8,586.96
32¢ 2,376.01
33¢ 3,873.3
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/27/2026, 19:02:15 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:04:15 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:06:15 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:08:16 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:10:12 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:12:13 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:14:15 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:16:15 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:18:16 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:20:16 29.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:22:15 28.5¢
8/27/2026, 19:23:15 28.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesSell · Yes 8/27/2026, 16:41:27
$5,456 11.82¢
Sell · Yes 8/27/2026, 16:41:27
$13,079 25.7¢
Buy · Yes 8/27/2026, 16:34:12
$9,000 31.98¢