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Unified market view

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 73%
Price at model run 27¢ Model run: 8/21/2026, 18:01:19
Live best ask 26¢ Live update: 8/21/2026, 18:58:03
Model gpt-5.4-mini

Fairly efficient market near 27c with no strong edge; momentum is positive, but the current price already reflects much of it and liquidity is adequate.

Watch triggers
  • Yes at 0.27
  • Negative edge vs price
  • No strong catalyst gap
Why not now

Fairly efficient market near 27c with no strong edge; momentum is positive, but the current price already reflects much of it and liquidity is adequate.

Revisit when

Yes at 0.27 · Negative edge vs price · No strong catalyst gap

Execution guard

Price 26¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $79,527. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/21/2026, 18:58:03

Signal

Buy

Best ask ?

26¢

Volume (24h) ?

$126,827

Liquidity ?

$79,527

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

43.2%

Momentum ?

6.3%

Volatility ?

1.2%

Trend slope ?

0

Reasons

  • Momentum turning up
  • Bid depth outweighs asks
  • Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

  • Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
  • Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
  • Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

25¢ 100
24¢ 105
23¢ 9,109.99
22¢ 4,600
21¢ 12,409.6

Asks

26¢ 5
27¢ 3,601.85
28¢ 3,246.66
29¢ 3,186.57
30¢ 400

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/21/2026, 18:32:13 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:34:14 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:36:21 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:38:12 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:40:14 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:42:12 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:44:12 26.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:46:10 25.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:48:13 25¢
8/21/2026, 18:50:27 25¢
8/21/2026, 18:52:13 25.5¢
8/21/2026, 18:53:14 25.5¢

Prediction history

Full history
Yes ↓ -1% 8/21/2026, 18:01:19

Fairly efficient market near 27c with no strong edge; momentum is positive, but the current price already reflects much of it and liquidity is adequate.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.