8/21/2026, 00:03:16 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
34¢
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the observed downward trend and negative imbalance, so fading Yes has a modest edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price 0.34 with spread 0.01 · 1d/1w Yes trend down · Orderbook favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
72%
Yes is priced near 0.34, but recent drift is down and orderbook leans to No; no strong evidence BTC will tag $55k. Model probability is slightly below market.
8/20/2026, 18:01:06 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
38¢
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the tail-event probability; selling/shorting Yes is favored if you can hold the position through expiry risk.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.35-0.38 vs low tail odds · Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes · 1d/1w trend on Yes is down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
74%
The market implies about 35% for Yes, but the event needs a BTC one-minute low at or below $55k before 2027. Current price action has fallen recently, yet the threshold remains far enough below spot to keep tail risk limited; orderbook leans against Yes and recent drift favors No.
8/20/2026, 12:03:40 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
34¢
Price is close to fair value with no clear mispricing. Recent bearish drift in Yes is offset by supportive bid depth and moderate liquidity, leaving no strong trade edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.34 · Downtrend in history · Orderbook support exists
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
63%
Yes trades near 0.34, but the market structure and recent drift favor No. Orderbook shows stronger bid support on Yes, yet the broader trend has been down and the event requires a BTC 1m low at or below $55k, which is a relatively strict threshold. Limited edge and balanced liquidity suggest only a small negative expectation for Yes.
