Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 18:02:03
Current pricing is near fair for a long-dated binary with ample time for volatility to realize the threshold; no strong mispricing or catalyst is evident.
Unified market view
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 64%
Price at model run 25¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:02:03
Live best ask 26¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:48:26
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current pricing is near fair for a long-dated binary with ample time for volatility to realize the threshold; no strong mispricing or catalyst is evident.
Watch triggers
- Long time to expiry
- 1m low threshold is event-driven
- Price near fair value
Why not now
Current pricing is near fair for a long-dated binary with ample time for volatility to realize the threshold; no strong mispricing or catalyst is evident.
Revisit when
Long time to expiry · 1m low threshold is event-driven · Price near fair value
Execution guard
Price 26¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $69,775. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:48:26
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
26¢Volume (24h) ?
$81,398Liquidity ?
$69,775Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
51.5%Momentum ?
-2.0%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
24¢ 6,309.41
23¢ 5,420
22¢ 1,093.18
21¢ 2,851.02
20¢ 2,688.19
Asks
26¢ 5,155.02
27¢ 210
28¢ 210
29¢ 100
30¢ 200
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:11 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:22 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:08 25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:03:48
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:26
No clear edge at current price. The contract is near fair for a distant binary tail event, with balanced price action and only modest orderbook skew.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:04:08
Small positive edge on Yes at a low entry price with ample time remaining. Orderbook is tight and the long-horizon binary tail risk supports a modest long position.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/2/2026, 18:03:37
The contract is fairly efficient around 24-25c, and the orderbook/liquidity do not show a strong enough mispricing to justify a trade.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 8/3/2026, 14:52:30
$39,451 75¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 14:40:30
$17,250 75¢