1/25/2026, 06:07:02 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
46.2¢
Market shows heavy liquidity and buying interest on No; Yes has weak bid depth and recent decline, implying limited near-term upside vs. downside. Recommend reducing long exposure.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Court order or DOJ-led unsealing that releases large trove of previously sealed Epstein files · Multiple credible investigative outlets report consensus that newly released files show explicit blackmail · Sudden large buy(s) that lift Yes price above 0.52 with sustained depth (would invalidate current imbalance)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -12% Confidence 55%
Orderbook and flow favor 'No' (very low bid depth for Yes, large ask depth and imbalance toward No), one-week downtrend for Yes price, and moderate likelihood that newly released files will contain unambiguous, qualifying blackmail evidence by Mar 31.
1/25/2026, 00:06:56 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
43.4¢
Small negative edge driven by weakening price momentum and already-extensive public record; trade if you expect continued drift toward No over coming weeks.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Unsealed court filings or FOIA releases naming new incriminating files · Major credible outlet (NYT/WaPo/WSJ) reporting consensus that newly released files show blackmail · Court order or judge's docket note indicating forthcoming document unsealing
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -5% Confidence 42%
Price has fallen sharply over the week and in the last day; many Epstein documents already public so incremental probability of newly released, qualifying blackmail evidence is modest. Orderbook shows some bid support but momentum favors No, so I estimate ~5 percentage points below market.
1/24/2026, 18:07:38 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
43.6¢
Model probability (~33%) < market price (43.6%); orderbook imbalance and persistent selling pressure support a short/exit signal over coming weeks/months.
Triggers Major FOIA/agency release containing new Epstein files · Credible mainstream outlets reach consensus that released files show blackmail · Court disclosure or unsealed evidentiary filings revealing coercion
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -11% Confidence 60%
Market price 43.6% but week-long downtrend, ask-heavy orderbook, low volatility, and high evidentiary standard make true probability materially lower (model ~33%).
1/24/2026, 12:07:40 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
43.3¢
Market overprices near-term release relative to model; heavy sell-side liquidity and recent downtrend suggest downside risk at current price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Court order or judge ruling to unseal Epstein-related files · Major credible news outlet reports newly released files show blackmail · DOJ/SDNY or custodial party announces planned public release
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -13% Confidence 45%
Model probability ~30% vs market 43.3%. Price has fallen ~26% over the week, large ask liquidity vs small bid depth, and no clear imminent legal/unsealing trigger visible before Mar 31 — lowers chance of previously unreleased blackmail evidence being publicly released in time.
1/24/2026, 00:06:59 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
48¢
Small negative edge and heavy No-side liquidity make selling at current price favorable in the near term; watch for news-driven reprice.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Large market buys filling Yes ask depth (sustained upward momentum above 0.52) · Credible reporting or release explicitly documenting blackmail evidence · Big sell orders or cancellation of No bids (weakening No-side liquidity)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 55%
Orderbook/liquidity strongly favors 'No' (large bid depth on No, large ask depth on Yes), plus a week-long decline for 'Yes' from ~0.68→0.47; recent 1d bounce is present but shallow—overall market likely overstates 'Yes' by a small margin.
