1/25/2026, 06:04:22 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
4.5¢
Small negative edge and heavy orderbook/liquidity skew toward No; exit Yes exposure before expiry unless clear bullish triggers appear.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained, rapid BTC spot rally toward $100k (large continuous candles) · major positive exchange/ETF or macro news that can drive spikes within days · large market buys that materially reduce Yes ask depth / push topAsk down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 60%
Market prices Yes at ~4.5%; limited time (~6 days) to expiry, recent downward drift and moderate volatility make a 100k 1-min candle unlikely — I estimate ~2% actual chance, ~2.5ppt lower than market.
1/25/2026, 00:03:40 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
4.5¢
No detectable edge and heavy orderbook/liquidity advantage for No makes moving price costly; best to wait for informative triggers.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price rises >0.10 (10%) and sustains for several hours · Orderbook imbalance flips (bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN by >2x) on Yes · Material bullish catalyst or on-chain flow indicating rapid BTC move toward $100k
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
No clear model advantage vs market. Market-implied probability ~4.5% with strong liquidity and orderbook skew toward No; recent Yes price trend is down and volatility is elevated but provides no reliable edge.
1/24/2026, 18:04:04 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
3.9¢
Market overprices the tail chance given required magnitude of move and limited time; orderbook imbalance favors No.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained 24h BTC rally >15% reducing downside case · Large concentrated buys on Yes side (topN buy depth >> current ~950) · News or macro event that materially increases intraday volatility (e.g., major exchange/ETF announcement)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 35%
Short time to expiry (~7 days) requires a large, low-probability price excursion to $100k; orderbook/volume skew strongly toward No and recent price trend is down vs earlier highs, so model probability (~1.9%) < market (~3.9%).
1/24/2026, 12:02:55 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
4¢
Short time to expiry and recent persistent decline in 'Yes' price imply downside relative to the current 4% market price; marginal negative edge.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers BTC spot rallies sharply toward $90k+ on Binance (sustained intraday move) · Sudden volatility spike (large 1m/5m candles) increasing chance of intraday $100k wick · Large sell-side withdrawal on 'Yes' orderbook or significant ask depth reduction
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 60%
Price for 'Yes' has trended sharply down over the past week/day, implying falling market belief; limited time remaining (days) makes a $100k 1-minute high unlikely despite volatility; orderbook shows concentrated bid depth but recent price decline and low implied probability (4%) support a slightly lower model probability.
1/24/2026, 06:03:12 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5.9¢
No clear model edge vs market price, heavy opposite-side liquidity and limited time to expiry — no exploitable trade identified.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle prints a High ≥ $100,000 · Large aggressive buys push Yes price substantially above current ask (e.g., >0.10) with sustained depth · Marked reduction in No-side ask depth / imbalance falling below ~0.5
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
Market implies ~5.9% chance. Short time to expiry (~≤8 days) and strong No-side liquidity/imbalance make a sudden BTC >$100k on Binance unlikely; recent short-term uptick in Yes price is ambiguous and not enough to infer a positive edge.
