1/25/2026, 06:06:20 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
36¢
Market appears to overprice the 'Yes' tail given recent upward trend and strong No-side liquidity; short time-to-expiry increases probability of no dip.
Triggers sustained intraday downward reversal in BTC price >2% · significant reduction in No-side ask depth (askDepthTopN drops materially) · major negative macro or crypto-specific news increasing volatility
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -14% Confidence 60%
Short-term momentum is upward (Yes price rising from 0.255→0.365 over the week/day), low intraday volatility, and orderbook liquidity is skewed heavily toward No (imbalance ~0.77). With ~7 days to expiry, I estimate model P(Yes) ≈ 22% vs market 36%, implying a ~-14ppt edge.
1/25/2026, 00:03:20 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
32¢
Orderbook shows large bid depth and recent upward movement in Yes probability; price (0.32) appears modestly undervalued vs implied risk of a short-term dip.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Large BTC sell-off / 1m candle lows approach $85k on Binance · Further absorption of asks for the Yes token (ask depth falling vs bid depth) · Spike in intraday volatility or negative macro/crypto news increasing crash risk
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +8% Confidence 45%
Heavy bid-side liquidity and rising Yes price over recent periods imply market support for the Yes side; short time to expiry makes a rapid dip plausible given crypto volatility.
1/24/2026, 18:03:25 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
32¢
Market price (0.32) appears slightly underpricing Yes given momentum, bid-heavy orderbook and remaining week to expiry; liquidity is adequate for entry but uncertainty on actual BTC level limits co...
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers A Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle low ≤ $85,000 (resolves Yes) · Sustained 24h BTC drop > 5% on Binance · Large sell wall or liquidation spikes on Binance orderbook
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +10% Confidence 55%
Recent upward move in Yes price from ~0.13→0.30 over the week, strong bid-side depth (imbalance ~0.71) and elevated short-term volatility support a higher-than-market chance of an intra-month dip; some uncertainty remains due to missing underlying BTC spot level.
1/24/2026, 12:04:10 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
26¢
Modest positive edge plus strong bid-side liquidity and tight spread support buying before expiry; edge is small so position sizing should be cautious.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained lifting of asks / removal of large asks for 'Yes' (increasing market buys) · Spot BTC price moves decisively down toward $85k (materially increases event probability) · Large cancellation of 'Yes' bids or sudden shift in orderbook imbalance (would reduce edge)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +8% Confidence 42%
Orderbook shows meaningful buy-side depth for 'Yes' (bidDepthTopN 49k vs ask 23k) and weekly momentum lifting the Yes token; limited time to expiry and recent 1d pullback add uncertainty, so a modest positive edge.
1/24/2026, 06:04:02 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
25¢
No clear model advantage relative to the market price and ample liquidity; avoid taking position absent direct Binance price/volatility signals.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle Low <= $85,000 (would immediately resolve Yes) · Spot price drops below ~$90,000 with rising 1m realized volatility · Significant shift in orderbook imbalance or sudden large fills pushing Yes price materially above/below current range
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
Insufficient external BTC price context to form an independent probability; market is liquid, spread tight, and recent contract price moved lower for Yes but overall pricing appears efficient—no clear arbitrage edge.
