1/25/2026, 06:00:45 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
21¢
Small negative edge vs market and downward momentum into expiry — recommend trimming/shorting exposure near the 0.21 price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of imminent US strike operations against Iran · Major escalation (attacks on US forces or allies attributed to Iran) that increases likelihood of direct US strikes · Diplomatic de-escalation or clear statements ruling out strikes (would lower probability further)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -6% Confidence 45%
Price has trended down from ~30% to ~21% over 24h; limited near-term catalysts for a US strike, though orderbook shows strong bid support around 0.20. I estimate probability slightly below market (≈15%).
1/25/2026, 00:00:26 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
24¢
Market appears to overprice a near-term US strike on Iranian soil; momentum and 24h price collapse support a short-term sell to expiry.
Triggers Credible reporting of imminent US strike plans or confirmed strikes · Major escalation (US casualties or attacks on US assets) increasing likelihood of retaliation · Public US military posture change (rapid deployment/strikes ordered)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 60%
Given the short time to expiry (~6 days), recent price drop (0.325→0.245 in 24h) and low volatility, I estimate ~15% intrinsic chance vs market 24%; orderbook liquidity is balanced, giving limited arbitrage but not enough to justify current price.
1/24/2026, 18:00:29 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
25¢
Modest positive edge, strong bid-side liquidity supports execution at current price; target a short horizon given ~1 week to expiry and event-driven risk.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of imminent US strike orders or target selection · sustained large market buys pushing price above 0.30 · sudden US force posture escalation near Iran (troop/missile redeployments)
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 45%
Orderbook shows substantially larger bid depth for Yes (imbalance ~0.65) and tight spread with low vol — market has shallow downside; given near-term horizon and elevated liquidity, I estimate a modest underpricing vs. my model (~30% vs market 25%).
1/24/2026, 12:00:34 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
23¢
Modest positive edge and strong bid-side depth make buying at 0.23 attractive over the short term, but outcome is geopolitically uncertain and expiry is near so confidence is moderate.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of imminent US strike plans or operational orders · sharp orderbook shift: ask depth increases or bids pulled · unexpected de-escalation signals between US and Iran
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +7% Confidence 55%
Large bid depth and strong top-N imbalance (~0.77) indicate buying pressure vs thin asks; price stabilized after a recent drop with low volatility and very high liquidity — so model assigns modestly higher probability (~30%) than market (23%).
1/24/2026, 06:00:58 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
31¢
Modest positive edge + liquidity and bid pressure favor buying at 0.31 for a medium horizon, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps conviction limited.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reports of escalating direct attacks on US personnel or facilities in the region · explicit US military orders or public posture shift authorizing strikes on Iran · large-scale Iranian or proxy attacks attributed to Iran prompting US retaliation
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 45%
Orderbook shows strong bid-side imbalance (Yes bid depth > ask depth), price has risen sharply over 1d/1w (0.225→0.305) despite low volatility; this suggests market underpricing a modest baseline probability of a direct US strike on Iran by the expiry. Short-term dip appears noise.
