1/25/2026, 06:04:40 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Model estimate (~5%) materially below market (30%), so selling overpriced 'Yes' is favored; significant political/legal obstacles make near-term reversal likely absent major shocks.
Triggers Signed treaty or binding legislation between US and Denmark/Greenland transferring sovereignty or exclusive control · Major geopolitical crisis or military action involving Greenland/Danish territory enabling de facto US control · Official announcements from Denmark/Greenland indicating willingness to cede territory or jurisdiction
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -25% Confidence 70%
Acquisition of Greenland territory by the U.S. by end-2026 is highly implausible given Danish/Greenland sovereignty, legal and political barriers; market price (30%) appears elevated despite heavy liquidity and recent modest bid pressure.
1/25/2026, 00:06:37 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
30¢
Market (0.30) appears materially overpricing the event versus fundamentals; sell unless clear binding treaty/legislation signals emerge.
Triggers Signed treaty or legislation transferring sovereignty or granting exclusive U.S. jurisdiction · Formal, public U.S.-Denmark agreement text creating primary U.S. control · Greenlandic parliamentary vote or referendum endorsing transfer
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -22% Confidence 65%
Significant legal and political barriers (Danish sovereignty, Greenland autonomy) make a binding transfer or exclusive U.S. jurisdiction by end-2026 unlikely; market momentum has pushed price to 30% but fundamentals imply a much lower chance (~8%).
1/24/2026, 18:07:10 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
29¢
Market appears materially overpricing the 'Yes' outcome versus fundamentals; selling (shorting) is warranted unless concrete legal/treaty signals emerge. Medium horizon to allow political developme...
Triggers Signed treaty or enacted U.S. legislation explicitly transferring sovereignty or granting exclusive jurisdiction · Danish parliament or Greenlandic legislature votes to cede territory or approve transfer · Official joint U.S.–Denmark announcement with binding legal text
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -24% Confidence 72%
I estimate ~5% chance the U.S. acquires Greenland by end-2026 vs market 29% (edge = 0.05-0.29 = -0.24). Legal/political hurdles, Danish/Greenland opposition, and lack of any binding treaty or legislation make acquisition unlikely. Recent price uptick and bid-side liquidity look speculative rather than driven by new fundamentals.
1/24/2026, 12:01:19 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
27¢
Market (27%) overstates plausibility vs. expected model probability (~8%); high liquidity but no signs of binding agreements or government approvals—sell to capture negative edge.
Triggers Signed, ratified treaty or legislation transferring sovereignty or exclusive jurisdiction to the U.S. · Formal Danish parliamentary approval accompanied by Greenlandic consent or referendum result in favor · Official, binding agreement text published (not just MOUs) explicitly ceding defined territory or exclusive control to the U.S.
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -19% Confidence 65%
Transfer of sovereignty or exclusive U.S. control of Greenland by end-2026 is legally and politically difficult; would require Danish and likely Greenlandic consent (treaty/legislation or referendum). Recent price appreciation appears driven by speculation/liquidity rather than new binding agreements; absent clear, binding diplomatic/legal steps, probability is low.
1/24/2026, 06:01:45 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
27¢
Market appears to overprice the geopolitical likelihood; sell to capture current premium while fundamentals remain weak. High liquidity means exit is feasible, but strong bid-side depth suggests so...
Triggers Signed, binding treaty or legislation transferring sovereignty or granting exclusive US jurisdiction · Official Danish or Greenland government announcement confirming a qualifying transfer/agreement · Clear text of an agreement establishing exclusive US control (meets market resolution rules)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -19% Confidence 60%
I estimate ~8% chance vs market 27% (edge = 0.08-0.27 = -0.19). A US acquisition or transfer of sovereignty over Greenland by end-2026 faces high legal, political, and diplomatic barriers (Danish/Greenland resistance, treaty/legislation requirements), making the fundamental probability low. Recent price appreciation looks speculative and liquidity-concentrated (large bid depth imbalance), which reduces but does not eliminate the market-implied optimism.
