Unified market view

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↑ +4%

Confidence 58%

Current price 58¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Small positive edge versus current price and orderbook lean support a limited upside trade, though the spread is narrow and conviction is moderate.

Watch triggers

Bid depth exceeds ask depth at top levels
Price has drifted up over 1d/6h
Spread remains tight at 1 cent

Why not now

Small positive edge versus current price and orderbook lean support a limited upside trade, though the spread is narrow and conviction is moderate.

Revisit when

Bid depth exceeds ask depth at top levels · Price has drifted up over 1d/6h · Spread remains tight at 1 cent

Execution guard

Price 58¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $136,002. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:12:51

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

58¢

Volume (24h) ?

$88,121

Liquidity ?

$126,996

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

21.4%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.3%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

57¢ 1,241.53

56¢ 9,122.1

55¢ 24,079.65

54¢ 15,814.86

53¢ 12,422.26

Asks

58¢ 3,115

59¢ 13,738.74

60¢ 10,620.18

61¢ 8,393.11

62¢ 4,681.83

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/21/2026, 10:51:04 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 10:53:03 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 10:55:04 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 10:57:05 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 10:59:03 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:01:17 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:03:04 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:05:04 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:07:03 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:09:03 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:11:14 57.5¢

6/21/2026, 11:12:03 57.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +4% 6/20/2026, 00:01:51

Small positive edge versus current price and orderbook lean support a limited upside trade, though the spread is narrow and conviction is moderate.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.