1/25/2026, 06:01:50 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
54¢
Market appears fairly priced given available information; deep orderbook and muted price action give no actionable edge before expiry.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of imminent US strike plans against Iran · confirmed attacks on US personnel/assets prompting retaliation · official US statements indicating authorization or imminence of strikes
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 25%
No clear informational edge: price ~54% with heavy liquidity, shallow recent movement, and no near-term catalyst ahead of expiry.
1/25/2026, 00:02:02 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
53¢
Market appears slightly overpricing 'Yes' relative to model; only days to expiry and recent downward momentum favor selling into current price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of an imminent US strike on Iranian soil or diplomatic facilities · Major escalation (attacks on US assets/forces) in the region increasing strike likelihood · Large orderbook imbalance flip (ask depth >> bid depth) or sudden big buy orders pushing price materially above 0.55
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 40%
Current price 0.53 exceeds my model estimate (~0.45). Weekly trend shows a steady decline from ~0.61 to ~0.515 and little short-term upside catalysts; limited time to expiry increases impact of recent negative trend.
1/24/2026, 18:01:49 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
52¢
Modest negative edge with clear orderbook selling pressure for Yes and ample liquidity—opportunity to take profit or reduce exposure short-term.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of a US strike on Iranian soil or an embassy (would invalidate sell) · clear US public authorization or imminent strike indications (would invalidate sell) · major de-escalatory diplomatic developments (would strengthen sell)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -7% Confidence 45%
Orderbook imbalance and depth favor 'No' (large No bid depth, larger Yes ask depth), recent short-term uptick has softened (1h down), and market likely overprices escalation given historical low probability of US striking Iranian soil absent major provocation.
1/24/2026, 12:03:47 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
51¢
Slight negative edge vs market (market ~0.51 vs my ~0.45) and weekly trend favors No; tight spreads and high liquidity permit exiting near current price—positioning to expiry.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of imminent US strike on Iranian soil or embassy (would flip to buy) · clear US military mobilization toward strikes (would increase Yes probability) · public de‑escalation/diplomatic progress (would reinforce sell/No)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -6% Confidence 35%
7‑day trend strongly favors No (Yes down from ~0.61→0.475) despite short‑term bid pressure; with ~1 week to expiry downside momentum and absence of public escalation increases my probability below the market price.
