1/25/2026, 06:01:07 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
4¢
No clear mispricing or informative signal; high liquidity and recent downtrend make trading costly without new news.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Verified reporting of imminent or executed US strike on Iranian soil or embassy/consulate · Major Iranian attack on US forces/assets that would plausibly trigger US retaliation · Sudden price move upward with durable orderbook depth shift (e.g., Yes > 0.12 with bid depth increase)
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
Market already prices a very low probability (~4%). Recent steep price decline and high liquidity suggest crowd consensus; no clear informational edge in data to move model probability away from market price.
1/25/2026, 00:00:47 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
8¢
Small negative edge (~2%) and downward momentum; sell into the current thin spread rather than adding exposure absent concrete escalation signals.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of imminent US strike authorization or operational plans · major uptick in buy-side depth and sustained price recovery above $0.12 · public military escalation between US and Iran (attacks on US assets or allies)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 40%
Recent price collapsed (0.225→0.075 over 1d) with low volatility and no clear near-term catalysts; orderbook/liquidity large but trend implies true probability slightly below the 8% market price.
1/24/2026, 18:00:43 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
9¢
Market implies ~9% for a US strike; model estimates lower (~5%) given rapid price decline, low volatility, and lack of near-term catalysts—sell to capture perceived overpricing.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of a planned/ongoing US strike on Iranian soil · major escalation (attacks on US forces or assets linked to Iran) · public US military orders or official statements indicating imminent strike
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -4% Confidence 60%
Price has collapsed from 0.17 to ~0.085 in 1 day and continues downward; low volatility + large liquidity implies market consensus (~9%) is stable and short time to expiry (~1 week) reduces chance of a surprise US strike. No clear positive catalysts seen.
1/24/2026, 12:00:56 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
9¢
Modest negative edge and heavy sell-side depth: recommend selling Yes at ~9% for short-term protection ahead of expiry unless geopolitical triggers emerge.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of imminent US military orders targeting Iran · major Iranian attack on US personnel/assets or allies · confirmed US strikes on Iranian-linked targets that escalate toward Iranian territory
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -4% Confidence 35%
Price has fallen sharply from ~0.155 to 0.09 with large ask liquidity and positive ask imbalance; absent a clear near-term trigger, likelihood of a US strike on Iranian soil by Jan 26 appears lower than the market-implied 9%.
1/24/2026, 06:01:21 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
16¢
Small positive edge with favorable orderbook (large bid depth, upward short-term momentum) — trade for near-term move while monitoring news and liquidity.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers buy more if price dips to ≤0.14 · take profit or trim if price ≥0.20 · reassess on credible escalation reporting about US-Iran hostilities
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 45%
Recent price uptick, strong bid-side depth/imbalance for 'Yes', high trading volume and momentum over 24h suggest market underprices downside tail risk of a US strike in the near term.
