Yes ↓ -4% 6/19/2026, 12:00:17
Slight bearish edge on Yes at current price; liquidity is ample and the book tilt does not support further upside.
Unified market view
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 58%
Current price 54¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Slight bearish edge on Yes at current price; liquidity is ample and the book tilt does not support further upside.
Watch triggers
- Ask depth exceeds bid depth
- 24h price down
- No strong catalyst for a public Iranian pledge
Why not now
Slight bearish edge on Yes at current price; liquidity is ample and the book tilt does not support further upside.
Revisit when
Ask depth exceeds bid depth · 24h price down · No strong catalyst for a public Iranian pledge
Execution guard
Price 54¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $199,911. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/21/2026, 09:38:48
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
4¢Volume (24h) ?
$477,873Liquidity ?
$413,224Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.2¢Depth imbalance ?
80.4%Momentum ?
13.0%Volatility ?
1.4%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
3.8¢ 64.95
3.7¢ 67
3.6¢ 130.48
3.5¢ 24,064.82
3.4¢ 56,101.67
Asks
4¢ 7,527.52
4.1¢ 205
4.2¢ 205
4.3¢ 205
4.4¢ 605
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/21/2026, 09:16:03 3.85¢
6/21/2026, 09:18:16 3.85¢
6/21/2026, 09:20:03 3.85¢
6/21/2026, 09:22:04 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:24:04 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:26:03 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:28:04 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:30:03 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:32:14 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:34:03 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:36:03 3.9¢
6/21/2026, 09:37:02 3.9¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -5% 6/17/2026, 18:01:23
The market is fairly priced for headline risk, but there is no clear event-driven edge or mispricing strong enough to buy or sell decisively.
Yes ↑ +2% 6/17/2026, 12:01:15
The market has surged quickly and liquidity is decent, but the current 56-57 spread and elevated price leave limited incremental edge. Better to wait for confirmation or pullback.
Yes ↓ -5% 6/17/2026, 06:00:59
Momentum has pushed Yes up sharply, but the event definition is strict and the market appears slightly rich relative to the remaining policy and diplomatic uncertainty.
Yes ↓ -4% 6/16/2026, 12:01:00
Current price is near fair value; upside exists if diplomacy advances, but the required outcome is binary and still lacks a clear catalyst or confirmation.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.