5/31/2026, 00:02:12 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
88¢
Price is near the upper end of a plausible range with tight spread, but the edge versus market is minimal. Better to wait for news on squad fitness/selection.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Strong recent price drift up · Tight 1-cent spread · No fresh team/news catalyst
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
55%
Market is already pricing a high chance and the recent move is supportive, but there’s no strong new evidence Neymar will definitely play. Small bullish lean only due to price momentum and depth.
5/24/2026, 18:02:11 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
87¢
Price is near the upper end of the recent range and orderbook is tight but not obviously mispriced; no clear edge versus 0.87.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid-ask is 0.86/0.87 · 24h price fell 3 points · No strong catalyst in supplied data
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
69%
Yes is priced at 0.87 and recent trend has drifted down over 24h. Neymar playing is possible, but the current price already embeds a high probability with limited apparent upside from history/orderbook.
5/23/2026, 12:02:00 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
89¢
The market is near the top of a likely range with a tight spread, but the 0.89 price leaves little edge versus uncertain World Cup availability.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask 0.90 · Limited spread · No new availability catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
Price at 0.89 already implies a high chance of Neymar appearing; current data shows only modest drift and no strong fresh catalyst, so upside looks limited.
