Unified market view

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↑ +2%

Confidence 55%

Current price 88¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is near the upper end of a plausible range with tight spread, but the edge versus market is minimal. Better to wait for news on squad fitness/selection.

Watch triggers

Strong recent price drift up
Tight 1-cent spread
No fresh team/news catalyst

Why not now

Price is near the upper end of a plausible range with tight spread, but the edge versus market is minimal. Better to wait for news on squad fitness/selection.

Revisit when

Strong recent price drift up · Tight 1-cent spread · No fresh team/news catalyst

Execution guard

Price 88¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $86,539. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:38:04

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

89¢

Volume (24h) ?

$39,097

Liquidity ?

$75,781

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-22.1%

Momentum ?

-1.1%

Volatility ?

0.1%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

88¢ 12,761.08

87¢ 13,230.39

86¢ 3,137

85¢ 1,019.1

84¢ 600

Asks

89¢ 1,962.03

90¢ 7,684.89

91¢ 13,525.98

92¢ 7,180.6

93¢ 17,854.14

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:16:05 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:18:04 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:20:05 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:22:05 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:24:04 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:26:03 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:28:03 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:30:03 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:32:04 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:34:03 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:36:03 88.5¢

5/31/2026, 14:37:03 88.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +2% 5/31/2026, 00:02:12

Price is near the upper end of a plausible range with tight spread, but the edge versus market is minimal. Better to wait for news on squad fitness/selection.

Yes ↓ -4% 5/24/2026, 18:02:11

Price is near the upper end of the recent range and orderbook is tight but not obviously mispriced; no clear edge versus 0.87.

Yes ↓ -3% 5/23/2026, 12:02:00

The market is near the top of a likely range with a tight spread, but the 0.89 price leaves little edge versus uncertain World Cup availability.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.