Polysage · Prediction history

6/21/2026, 12:01:41 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 79¢

Slight bearish edge on No change at the current price. Recent weakening in price suggests downside risk remains, and the ask is still near a high implied probability for no move.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers Yes priced near 0.79 · 7d trend down from 0.93 · Orderbook not strongly supportive

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -4% Confidence 66%

No-change is priced around 0.79, which looks a bit rich versus the historical drift and the still-meaningful bid/ask balance. The market has recently sold off from 0.93 to 0.79, but the current level likely still overstates a hold relative to cut risk.

6/18/2026, 06:00:57 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon To expiry Current price 80¢

No clear mispricing: Yes is already expensive, but the negative edge is modest and orderbook/liquidity do not justify an aggressive trade.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers Yes near 0.80 · Small negative edge · Ask depth exceeds bid depth

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 72%

Price at 0.80 already implies a high chance of no change. The recent 1d/1w drift lower suggests some downside to the current Yes price, and orderbook asks outweigh bids at the top levels. But with wide Fed uncertainty this close to the event, the edge is small.