Polysage · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 72%
Current price 80¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini

No clear mispricing: Yes is already expensive, but the negative edge is modest and orderbook/liquidity do not justify an aggressive trade.

Watch triggers
  • Yes near 0.80
  • Small negative edge
  • Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Why not now

No clear mispricing: Yes is already expensive, but the negative edge is modest and orderbook/liquidity do not justify an aggressive trade.

Revisit when

Yes near 0.80 · Small negative edge · Ask depth exceeds bid depth

Execution guard

Price 80¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $271,484. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:08:11

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

79¢

Volume (24h) ?

$130,272

Liquidity ?

$367,107

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-16.1%

Momentum ?

1.3%

Volatility ?

0.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

  • No strong edge detected

Rule notes

  • No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

78¢ 20,970.09
77¢ 10,942.39
76¢ 107,328.16
75¢ 79,717.34
74¢ 82,539.51

Asks

79¢ 53,021.16
80¢ 98,196.03
81¢ 211,097.34
82¢ 50,492
83¢ 4,167.46

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/21/2026, 10:45:06 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:47:05 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:49:03 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:51:05 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:53:03 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:55:05 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:57:05 77.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:59:04 78.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:01:17 78.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:03:05 78.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:05:05 78.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:07:03 78.5¢

Prediction history

Full history
Yes ↓ -3% 6/18/2026, 06:00:57

No clear mispricing: Yes is already expensive, but the negative edge is modest and orderbook/liquidity do not justify an aggressive trade.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.