Unified market view

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 67%

Price at model run 7.3¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 00:00:41

Live best ask 4.2¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 18:05:07

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is extremely low and orderbook is tight, but recent move already repriced sharply lower; I see no clean edge to buy or sell now.

Watch triggers

Yes trades near 7.3%
Sharp 24h drop already happened
Tight 1-tick spread

Why not now

Price is extremely low and orderbook is tight, but recent move already repriced sharply lower; I see no clean edge to buy or sell now.

Revisit when

Yes trades near 7.3% · Sharp 24h drop already happened · Tight 1-tick spread

Execution guard

Price 4.2¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $373,931. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/15/2026, 18:05:07

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

4.2¢

Volume (24h) ?

$586,729

Liquidity ?

$373,931

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

14.5%

Momentum ?

-35.1%

Volatility ?

3.3%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

4.2¢ 127

4.1¢ 10,975.35

4¢ 1,433.16

3.9¢ 2,005

3.8¢ 91,305.34

Asks

4.3¢ 2,188.45

4.4¢ 347

4.5¢ 6,822.75

4.6¢ 69,300.14

4.7¢ 403

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/15/2026, 17:44:05 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:46:06 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:48:05 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:50:07 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:52:05 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:54:05 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:56:05 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 17:58:05 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 18:00:07 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 18:02:03 4.15¢

7/15/2026, 18:04:05 4.2¢

7/15/2026, 18:05:04 4.25¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 7/15/2026, 00:00:41

Price is extremely low and orderbook is tight, but recent move already repriced sharply lower; I see no clean edge to buy or sell now.

Yes ↓ -1% 7/14/2026, 18:00:43

Yes appears overpriced versus the current tape and deep ask pressure; the recent move is downward and liquidity favors the opposite side.

Yes ↓ -2% 7/12/2026, 18:01:57

No clear mispricing: yes is already cheap, but recent selling and balanced liquidity do not justify a strong buy or sell.

Yes ↓ -2% 7/11/2026, 12:00:55

The price has moved up fast over 1d/1w and is now near the top of its recent range, while orderbook support is only modest. Slightly bearish on Yes at current price.

Yes ↓ -3% 7/10/2026, 06:01:04

Price is still above my estimate of a 25 bps hike probability, so the Yes contract looks slightly overpriced.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 7/15/2026, 12:33:02

$10,457 94.99¢

Buy · No 7/15/2026, 12:31:28

$44,333 94.39¢

Sell · No 7/15/2026, 11:53:46

$78,560 93.28¢