5/31/2026, 06:02:10 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
1.8¢
The Yes price is still above my estimate, and recent trend/microstructure favor continued downside or stagnation. Event requirements are strict and there is no clear catalyst for a qualifying perma...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price remains elevated vs my estimate · 1d and 1w trend sharply down · No confirmed qualifying agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
93%
Market implies a very low yes probability, but the remaining upside still looks overstretched given the steep recent selloff, weak momentum, and no evidence of a definitive deal. I estimate slightly lower than current price due to continued absence of qualifying signals.
5/30/2026, 12:00:10 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
3.2¢
The market is extremely low-priced and liquid, but there is no clear informational edge beyond a mild bearish lean on Yes; current price already implies a very small chance of a qualifying peace deal.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 3.2% · Downtrend over 1d/1w · No confirmed agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
0% Confidence
60%
No deal is priced around 3.2%; recent price weakness and heavy sell pressure suggest the market still expects failure, but the upside from a surprise announcement is tiny and already mostly reflected.
5/30/2026, 06:00:13 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
5¢
The market is already pricing a very low Yes probability, and while I lean slightly bearish, the edge is small versus the tight spread and high liquidity.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near 5% · Recent 1d/1w downtrend · No deal catalyst evident
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
74%
Price implies ~5% Yes; momentum, wide No dominance, and recent declines suggest the true chance is slightly below market. No visible catalyst for a qualifying permanent deal.
5/29/2026, 18:00:19 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
13¢
The current Yes price around 0.13 looks a bit rich versus the weak evidence for a qualifying permanent deal by expiry. Book and trend favor No, so fading Yes is preferred.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid/ask thin at 0.13-0.14 · No side has stronger depth · Yes down 12 pts in 7d
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
78%
Price implies a low-probability peace deal; headline risk exists, but the market has already rallied and the order book favors No, suggesting Yes is slightly overpriced.
5/29/2026, 12:00:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
9¢
Price is already very low and the data show no clear upside catalyst; edge is slightly negative for Yes, so waiting is better than buying or chasing a short move.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.09 near low end · 7d trend remains down · No confirmed peace deal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
78%
Yes trades near 0.09 with no positive catalyst; weekly trend is down from 0.215 to 0.095 and orderbook is only modestly supportive despite deep liquidity.
