Yes ↓ -1% 5/31/2026, 06:02:10
The Yes price is still above my estimate, and recent trend/microstructure favor continued downside or stagnation. Event requirements are strict and there is no clear catalyst for a qualifying perma...
Unified market view
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 93%
Current price 1.8¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes price is still above my estimate, and recent trend/microstructure favor continued downside or stagnation. Event requirements are strict and there is no clear catalyst for a qualifying perma...
Watch triggers
- Yes price remains elevated vs my estimate
- 1d and 1w trend sharply down
- No confirmed qualifying agreement
Why not now
The Yes price is still above my estimate, and recent trend/microstructure favor continued downside or stagnation. Event requirements are strict and there is no clear catalyst for a qualifying perma...
Revisit when
Yes price remains elevated vs my estimate · 1d and 1w trend sharply down · No confirmed qualifying agreement
Execution guard
Price 1.8¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $1,087,628. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:37:27
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
1.4¢Volume (24h) ?
$2,495,314Liquidity ?
$1,210,481Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
33.5%Momentum ?
-27.0%Volatility ?
2.7%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
1.2¢ 19,769.99
1.1¢ 48,220.01
1¢ 177,863.99
0.9¢ 72,205
0.8¢ 62,774
Asks
1.3¢ 10,415.22
1.4¢ 41,257.13
1.5¢ 94,392.75
1.6¢ 11,392.97
1.7¢ 32,235.36
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:15:03 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 1.25¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 1.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:36:03 1.35¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ 0% 5/30/2026, 12:00:10
The market is extremely low-priced and liquid, but there is no clear informational edge beyond a mild bearish lean on Yes; current price already implies a very small chance of a qualifying peace deal.
Yes ↓ -1% 5/30/2026, 06:00:13
The market is already pricing a very low Yes probability, and while I lean slightly bearish, the edge is small versus the tight spread and high liquidity.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/29/2026, 18:00:19
The current Yes price around 0.13 looks a bit rich versus the weak evidence for a qualifying permanent deal by expiry. Book and trend favor No, so fading Yes is preferred.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/29/2026, 12:00:24
Price is already very low and the data show no clear upside catalyst; edge is slightly negative for Yes, so waiting is better than buying or chasing a short move.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.