6/21/2026, 06:01:13 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
1.2¢
Price is already near zero and the book is tight; recent drift lower reflects low event likelihood, but no clear informational edge is visible.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask ~0.011 · Very wide time to expiry · No fresh meeting catalyst
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
79%
Market implies ~1.1% for a qualifying meeting; current data shows no credible catalyst to justify a meaningful deviation.
6/20/2026, 12:01:27 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
26¢
The current Yes price appears a bit rich versus the declining trend and weak bullish depth; downside to the 0.26 bid seems more likely than a sustained rebound.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price dropped 24c in 24h · Orderbook ask depth exceeds bid depth · No side near 0.73 with balanced book
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
61%
Price has fallen sharply and orderbook leans to No; no strong evidence of a qualifying meeting before expiry, so Yes looks slightly overpriced.
