Unified market view

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes → 0%

Confidence 79%

Current price 1.2¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is already near zero and the book is tight; recent drift lower reflects low event likelihood, but no clear informational edge is visible.

Watch triggers

Best ask ~0.011
Very wide time to expiry
No fresh meeting catalyst

Why not now

Price is already near zero and the book is tight; recent drift lower reflects low event likelihood, but no clear informational edge is visible.

Revisit when

Best ask ~0.011 · Very wide time to expiry · No fresh meeting catalyst

Execution guard

Price 1.2¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $53,521. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:30:02

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

0.8¢

Volume (24h) ?

$346,823

Liquidity ?

$52,673

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.5¢

Depth imbalance ?

85.9%

Momentum ?

-9.5%

Volatility ?

16.9%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

0.7¢ 1,264.52

0.4¢ 126.98

0.3¢ 10,800

0.2¢ 15,040

0.1¢ 29,085

Asks

1.2¢ 1,442.91

1.4¢ 1,660.58

1.6¢ 12.03

1.7¢ 850

1.8¢ 300.03

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/21/2026, 11:08:04 0.85¢

6/21/2026, 11:10:05 1.1¢

6/21/2026, 11:12:04 0.9¢

6/21/2026, 11:14:04 0.85¢

6/21/2026, 11:16:04 0.9¢

6/21/2026, 11:18:05 0.9¢

6/21/2026, 11:20:03 0.75¢

6/21/2026, 11:22:05 0.75¢

6/21/2026, 11:24:03 0.75¢

6/21/2026, 11:26:04 0.9¢

6/21/2026, 11:28:04 0.85¢

6/21/2026, 11:29:04 0.95¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes → 0% 6/21/2026, 06:01:13

Price is already near zero and the book is tight; recent drift lower reflects low event likelihood, but no clear informational edge is visible.

Yes ↓ -2% 6/20/2026, 12:01:27

The current Yes price appears a bit rich versus the declining trend and weak bullish depth; downside to the 0.26 bid seems more likely than a sustained rebound.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.