Yes ↑ +1% 6/20/2026, 18:01:23
The market already prices Yes near 0.92, leaving limited upside. Strong momentum and bid imbalance support Yes, but the edge is too small to justify a fresh buy.
Unified market view
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Risky tape
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 56%
Current price 92.2¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market already prices Yes near 0.92, leaving limited upside. Strong momentum and bid imbalance support Yes, but the edge is too small to justify a fresh buy.
Watch triggers
- Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth
- Recent price momentum is strongly positive
- Spread is narrow, indicating efficient pricing
Why not now
The market already prices Yes near 0.92, leaving limited upside. Strong momentum and bid imbalance support Yes, but the edge is too small to justify a fresh buy.
Revisit when
Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth · Recent price momentum is strongly positive · Spread is narrow, indicating efficient pricing
Execution guard
Price 92.2¢ · spread 0.5 pts · liquidity $47,819. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:30:02
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
99¢Volume (24h) ?
$258,874Liquidity ?
$41,101Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
-2.2%Momentum ?
1.1%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
98.9¢ 10
98.6¢ 200
98.5¢ 2,200.19
98.4¢ 6,045
97.6¢ 400
Asks
99¢ 284.99
99.2¢ 2,292.63
99.3¢ 2,152.32
99.5¢ 1,363.51
99.6¢ 3,159.03
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/21/2026, 11:08:04 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:10:05 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:12:04 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:14:04 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:16:04 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:18:05 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:20:03 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:22:05 99.05¢
6/21/2026, 11:24:03 98.65¢
6/21/2026, 11:26:04 98.8¢
6/21/2026, 11:28:04 98.65¢
6/21/2026, 11:29:04 98.95¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +3% 6/20/2026, 12:01:21
The market has sharply repriced upward, but there is no clear event catalyst or informational advantage to justify chasing at current levels.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.