5/31/2026, 06:02:17 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
29¢
Spread is tight and current pricing is efficient enough; momentum favors No, but there is no strong mispricing or event trigger to justify a trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price down 18c in 1w · No side has thicker depth · No confirmed qualifying deal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
68%
Price has already fallen sharply over the week and still trades near 0.29, but orderbook depth and persistent No-side dominance suggest the market is closer to fair than oversold. No clear catalyst for a qualifying permanent deal by the deadline.
5/29/2026, 12:01:04 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
To expiry Current price
39¢
Price appears a bit rich versus the low probability of a qualifying permanent deal before expiry.
Triggers 1d and 1w Yes price trend down · ask depth exceeds bid depth · definition requires definitive lasting agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
64%
Yes trades near 0.39 with recent downtrend and modest ask pressure. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30 looks unlikely given the narrow definition and limited time remaining.
5/29/2026, 00:00:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
To expiry Current price
44¢
Current Yes price looks a bit rich relative to the limited time left and the lack of clear positive catalyst; fading the rally is favored.
Triggers Yes near 44% · Recent downward drift in Yes · No side slightly stronger in book
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-10% Confidence
63%
Yes is priced near 44%, but the market has recently drifted lower from a higher range and the event remains a low-probability diplomatic breakthrough before expiry.
5/28/2026, 00:00:26 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
45¢
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the recent momentum and book imbalance; better risk/reward leans to fading Yes.
Triggers 1d Yes down 9 pts · 24h market down · Ask depth > bid depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-12% Confidence
67%
Price implies about 45% Yes; history shows a sharp 1d drop and 24h weakness, while orderbook favors No and ask depth is heavier on Yes.
5/27/2026, 18:00:33 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
47¢
Price is slightly rich versus current flow and orderbook balance. The market has slipped recently despite heavy volume, suggesting limited upside without a concrete diplomatic breakthrough.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 24h price -4% · No-side ask depth dominates · Yes orderbook imbalance strong but price still weak
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-7% Confidence
71%
Yes trades at 0.47, but recent 24h/6h drift is down and book leans to No; no evidence of a qualifying permanent deal, so fair value looks below market.
