Yes ↓ -2% 5/31/2026, 06:02:17
Spread is tight and current pricing is efficient enough; momentum favors No, but there is no strong mispricing or event trigger to justify a trade.
Unified market view
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 68%
Current price 29¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Spread is tight and current pricing is efficient enough; momentum favors No, but there is no strong mispricing or event trigger to justify a trade.
Watch triggers
- Yes price down 18c in 1w
- No side has thicker depth
- No confirmed qualifying deal
Why not now
Spread is tight and current pricing is efficient enough; momentum favors No, but there is no strong mispricing or event trigger to justify a trade.
Revisit when
Yes price down 18c in 1w · No side has thicker depth · No confirmed qualifying deal
Execution guard
Price 29¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $206,876. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:52
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
30¢Volume (24h) ?
$212,941Liquidity ?
$235,566Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
42.9%Momentum ?
1.7%Volatility ?
0.9%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
29¢ 1,323.84
28¢ 43,820.61
27¢ 46,794.27
26¢ 14,415.52
25¢ 12,539.63
Asks
31¢ 4,456.19
32¢ 4,856.4
33¢ 32,508.44
34¢ 3,442.77
35¢ 2,298.11
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:14:03 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:16:05 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:18:04 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:20:05 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:22:05 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:24:04 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:26:03 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:28:03 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:30:03 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:32:04 30¢
5/31/2026, 14:34:03 29.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 30¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -8% 5/29/2026, 12:01:04
Price appears a bit rich versus the low probability of a qualifying permanent deal before expiry.
Yes ↓ -10% 5/29/2026, 00:00:30
Current Yes price looks a bit rich relative to the limited time left and the lack of clear positive catalyst; fading the rally is favored.
Yes ↓ -12% 5/28/2026, 00:00:26
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the recent momentum and book imbalance; better risk/reward leans to fading Yes.
Yes ↓ -7% 5/27/2026, 18:00:33
Price is slightly rich versus current flow and orderbook balance. The market has slipped recently despite heavy volume, suggesting limited upside without a concrete diplomatic breakthrough.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 5/31/2026, 05:25:21
$7,000 29.19¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 01:23:16
$13,000 74.79¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 00:08:43
$5,157 73.67¢