Yes ↓ -4% 5/28/2026, 12:00:52
The market looks a bit rich versus the recent downtrend and weak near-term momentum. With no strong catalyst for an abrupt traffic normalization, fading Yes is favored over buying it.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 72%
Current price 34¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market looks a bit rich versus the recent downtrend and weak near-term momentum. With no strong catalyst for an abrupt traffic normalization, fading Yes is favored over buying it.
Watch triggers
- 1d price fell 8 pts
- 1h trend still down
- orderbook slightly favors No
Why not now
The market looks a bit rich versus the recent downtrend and weak near-term momentum. With no strong catalyst for an abrupt traffic normalization, fading Yes is favored over buying it.
Revisit when
1d price fell 8 pts · 1h trend still down · orderbook slightly favors No
Execution guard
Price 34¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $258,169. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:38:04
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
29¢Volume (24h) ?
$175,337Liquidity ?
$240,377Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
53.8%Momentum ?
-1.7%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
28¢ 9,459.62
27¢ 58,018.95
26¢ 46,972.69
25¢ 37,138.29
24¢ 196,267.61
Asks
29¢ 31,504.82
30¢ 37,079.95
31¢ 21,880.02
32¢ 13,311.68
33¢ 761.64
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:15:03 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 28.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:37:03 28.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 5/26/2026, 12:00:31
Price is near fair value with conflicting signals: Yes has bid support, but recent price action weakened and the market has not shown a decisive breakout signal.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/26/2026, 00:00:46
Mixed signals: short-term price action has softened and the market is already near fair value. Liquidity is good, but there is no clear edge for a directional entry at current price.
Yes ↑ +1% 5/25/2026, 12:00:32
The orderbook and recent momentum lean slightly bullish, but the edge is too small relative to event uncertainty and no clear mispricing is evident.
Yes ↓ -8% 5/23/2026, 18:01:07
There is no clear edge at the current price. Recent momentum favors No, but the wide enough uncertainty and decent liquidity make this more of a watch than an immediate trade.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 5/31/2026, 00:25:05
$5,746 71.82¢
Buy · No 5/30/2026, 23:59:42
$16,017 71¢