5/30/2026, 12:00:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
15¢
Price has trended down but remains above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement; the market likely still overstates the chance of an official lift by expiry.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid/ask 0.15/0.16 · 1d Yes down 4.5 pts · Orderbook favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
70%
The Yes price is already low, but recent drift and orderbook skew still favor No; absent a new official reversal announcement, Yes looks slightly overpriced.
5/30/2026, 00:00:20 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
27¢
Market has already repriced higher on recent news flow, leaving limited edge at current levels; outcome remains binary and announcement-dependent.
Note
AI 建议不一致或置信度不足，降级为观望
Triggers Explicit official lift announcement required · Short time left until expiry · Recent sharp price run-up
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
72%
Price has jumped to 0.27 amid strong momentum, but a formal announcement by May 31 still looks unlikely given the need for an explicit official statement and the short deadline.
5/28/2026, 18:01:31 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
26¢
Pricing is efficient around a low-probability event with no clear confirming catalyst. The move up in Yes lacks evidence of imminent official announcement, so edge is small and not enough for a buy.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Need explicit official lift announcement · No corroborated policy reversal · Yes price already rallied
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
69%
Market implies ~26%; event requires an explicit public announcement, which appears unlikely absent fresh catalyst. Recent price rise looks momentum-driven, while 1-week trend still favors No.
5/27/2026, 00:01:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
30¢
The current Yes price near 0.30 looks a bit rich versus my estimate, given the lack of catalyst evidence and bearish short-term tape. The order book also leans against Yes, with much deeper bid sup...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price down 7c · Yes asks outweigh bids · No book depth much larger
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
74%
Market is pricing a low-probability official announcement, and the recent 1d drop plus current ask-heavy book suggest continued skepticism. With only days left and the resolution requiring a clear public statement, I see slightly lower-than-market odds of a qualifying lift announcement.
5/26/2026, 18:01:57 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
29¢
Current price is near fair value given the lack of a clear catalyst. Orderbook is balanced enough, but the recent downtrend in Yes is already reflected.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No official lift announcement yet · Yes price has declined sharply · Limited edge versus current 29% price
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
62%
Price already implies a low but nontrivial chance of an explicit lift announcement. The market has been sliding recently, and there is no concrete evidence of an official reversal statement before expiry.
