Yes ↓ -3% 5/30/2026, 12:00:24
Price has trended down but remains above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement; the market likely still overstates the chance of an official lift by expiry.
Unified market view
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 70%
Current price 15¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price has trended down but remains above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement; the market likely still overstates the chance of an official lift by expiry.
Watch triggers
- Yes bid/ask 0.15/0.16
- 1d Yes down 4.5 pts
- Orderbook favors No
Why not now
Price has trended down but remains above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement; the market likely still overstates the chance of an official lift by expiry.
Revisit when
Yes bid/ask 0.15/0.16 · 1d Yes down 4.5 pts · Orderbook favors No
Execution guard
Price 15¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $53,359. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:06
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
3.7¢Volume (24h) ?
$291,104Liquidity ?
$84,445Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.5¢Depth imbalance ?
-42.3%Momentum ?
-8.1%Volatility ?
4.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
- Volatility too high
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
- High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
3.2¢ 30
3.1¢ 226
3¢ 206.64
2.9¢ 167
2.7¢ 116.86
Asks
3.7¢ 11.25
3.8¢ 115.98
3.9¢ 530.1
4¢ 1,083.14
4.1¢ 100
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:13:04 3.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:15:03 3.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 3.6¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 3.45¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 3.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 3.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 3.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 3.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 3.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 3.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 3.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:34:03 3.4¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -8% 5/30/2026, 00:00:20
Market has already repriced higher on recent news flow, leaving limited edge at current levels; outcome remains binary and announcement-dependent.
Yes ↓ -2% 5/28/2026, 18:01:31
Pricing is efficient around a low-probability event with no clear confirming catalyst. The move up in Yes lacks evidence of imminent official announcement, so edge is small and not enough for a buy.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/27/2026, 00:01:46
The current Yes price near 0.30 looks a bit rich versus my estimate, given the lack of catalyst evidence and bearish short-term tape. The order book also leans against Yes, with much deeper bid sup...
Yes ↓ -2% 5/26/2026, 18:01:57
Current price is near fair value given the lack of a clear catalyst. Orderbook is balanced enough, but the recent downtrend in Yes is already reflected.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 5/31/2026, 02:02:54
$5,529 95¢
Sell · No 5/31/2026, 00:17:12
$9,497 91.01¢