Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
13.2¢
Market price has risen sharply, but the event requires a durable Israel-Iran settlement with low base rates and no clear catalyst for completion.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price up ~8c in 7d · Still only ~13% implied · Permanent deal requires explicit lasting agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
74%
Yes is priced around 0.13, but permanent peace by 2026 remains structurally unlikely; recent spike looks momentum-driven rather than fundamental.