Unified market view

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -6%

Confidence 74%

Current price 13.2¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Market price has risen sharply, but the event requires a durable Israel-Iran settlement with low base rates and no clear catalyst for completion.

Watch triggers

Yes price up ~8c in 7d
Still only ~13% implied
Permanent deal requires explicit lasting agreement

Why not now

Market price has risen sharply, but the event requires a durable Israel-Iran settlement with low base rates and no clear catalyst for completion.

Revisit when

Yes price up ~8c in 7d · Still only ~13% implied · Permanent deal requires explicit lasting agreement

Execution guard

Price 13.2¢ · spread 0.8 pts · liquidity $253,223. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:13:25

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

11.5¢

Volume (24h) ?

$675,923

Liquidity ?

$317,660

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.2¢

Depth imbalance ?

-30.8%

Momentum ?

-1.2%

Volatility ?

1.6%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

12.1¢ 11

12¢ 145.99

11.1¢ 40

11¢ 202.39

10.7¢ 85.16

Asks

12.3¢ 121.39

12.4¢ 200

12.5¢ 205.05

13.2¢ 88.68

13.3¢ 300

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/13/2026, 12:51:03 11.4¢

6/13/2026, 12:53:04 11.4¢

6/13/2026, 12:55:15 11.4¢

6/13/2026, 12:57:04 11.4¢

6/13/2026, 12:59:04 11.45¢

6/13/2026, 13:01:03 11.3¢

6/13/2026, 13:03:04 11.25¢

6/13/2026, 13:05:03 11.25¢

6/13/2026, 13:07:03 12.15¢

6/13/2026, 13:09:19 12.25¢

6/13/2026, 13:11:04 12.25¢

6/13/2026, 13:12:04 12.2¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -6% 6/13/2026, 06:00:44

Market price has risen sharply, but the event requires a durable Israel-Iran settlement with low base rates and no clear catalyst for completion.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 6/13/2026, 07:00:52

$10,000 89.15¢

Buy · No 6/13/2026, 06:13:13

$10,000 89.42¢

Buy · No 6/13/2026, 05:28:04

$6,000 90¢