Unified market view

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -3%

Confidence 66%

Price at model run 37¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 18:00:39

Live best ask 35¢ Live update: 7/16/2026, 00:03:06

Model gpt-5.4-mini

No clear mispricing: the book is tight, liquidity is solid, and the current price already reflects a modest chance. The recent downtrend in Yes is not enough to justify an outright buy or sell.

Watch triggers

Yes price drifted from 0.56 to 0.37
Orderbook favors No side
Spread is only 1 cent but edge is small

Why not now

No clear mispricing: the book is tight, liquidity is solid, and the current price already reflects a modest chance. The recent downtrend in Yes is not enough to justify an outright buy or sell.

Revisit when

Yes price drifted from 0.56 to 0.37 · Orderbook favors No side · Spread is only 1 cent but edge is small

Execution guard

Price 35¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $319,335. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/16/2026, 00:03:06

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

35¢

Volume (24h) ?

$947,038

Liquidity ?

$319,335

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

82.5%

Momentum ?

-5.5%

Volatility ?

4.5%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Volatility too high

Rule notes

High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

34¢ 19,830.68

33¢ 14,411.29

32¢ 464,772.46

31¢ 203,784

30¢ 7,412.04

Asks

35¢ 20,561.04

36¢ 19,379.83

37¢ 16,764.5

38¢ 8,621.05

39¢ 2,720.5

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/15/2026, 23:41:03 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:43:05 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:45:04 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:47:04 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:49:04 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:51:03 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:53:05 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:55:04 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:57:05 34.5¢

7/15/2026, 23:59:04 34.5¢

7/16/2026, 00:01:05 34.5¢

7/16/2026, 00:02:04 34.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -3% 7/15/2026, 18:00:39

No clear mispricing: the book is tight, liquidity is solid, and the current price already reflects a modest chance. The recent downtrend in Yes is not enough to justify an outright buy or sell.

Yes ↓ -3% 7/14/2026, 06:01:51

Slight bearish edge on Yes at 0.57 with strong No-side depth and no confirming momentum.

Yes ↓ -3% 7/13/2026, 06:00:51

Current price appears slightly above fair value; I see modest downside edge against Yes at 0.56.

Yes ↓ -3% 7/12/2026, 12:01:11

Price already reflects Mbappe favoritism, and recent movement plus orderbook imbalance do not show a strong mispricing. No clear buy signal at 0.57.

Yes ↓ -8% 7/10/2026, 18:01:15

No clear edge versus the current price; liquidity is good and the spread is tight, but the estimate is close to fair value with slight bearish lean.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.