5/29/2026, 12:03:10 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
7.6¢
Price looks roughly efficient for a low-probability tail event; wide spread and no clear catalyst justify waiting.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes is only ~7.6% · Spread is relatively wide · Event is a tail-risk candle low
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Market prices Yes near 0.076, but recent move remains volatile and the conditional event is still tail-risk only; no strong evidence BTC is likely to tag $70k in May.
5/28/2026, 12:01:10 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
15.4¢
Current Yes price is near fair value with a slight bearish lean, but the edge is small and liquidity/spread do not justify a decisive trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price has softened short-term · Ask-side resistance remains · No remains heavily favored
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
68%
Yes is priced around 0.154, but recent orderbook and history show drift down from higher levels and strong resistance on the ask side. The market still favors No, and I see no strong catalyst for a $70k dip in May.
