Unified market view

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -1%

Confidence 58%

Current price 7.6¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price looks roughly efficient for a low-probability tail event; wide spread and no clear catalyst justify waiting.

Watch triggers

Yes is only ~7.6%
Spread is relatively wide
Event is a tail-risk candle low

Why not now

Price looks roughly efficient for a low-probability tail event; wide spread and no clear catalyst justify waiting.

Revisit when

Yes is only ~7.6% · Spread is relatively wide · Event is a tail-risk candle low

Execution guard

Price 7.6¢ · spread 0.7 pts · liquidity $83,913. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:37:26

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

1.3¢

Volume (24h) ?

$169,409

Liquidity ?

$85,881

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.9¢

Depth imbalance ?

99.6%

Momentum ?

33.3%

Volatility ?

18.6%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢
Volatility too high

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

0.5¢ 400.18

0.4¢ 398.97

0.3¢ 9,227.67

0.2¢ 46,982.75

0.1¢ 121,413.12

Asks

1.4¢ 120.65

1.5¢ 20.1

1.8¢ 100

1.9¢ 100

2¢ 30.53

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:15:05 1.3¢

5/31/2026, 14:17:06 1¢

5/31/2026, 14:19:04 0.75¢

5/31/2026, 14:21:06 0.95¢

5/31/2026, 14:23:05 0.9¢

5/31/2026, 14:25:03 0.9¢

5/31/2026, 14:27:04 1¢

5/31/2026, 14:29:04 1¢

5/31/2026, 14:31:07 1¢

5/31/2026, 14:33:03 1¢

5/31/2026, 14:35:04 1¢

5/31/2026, 14:36:03 1¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -1% 5/29/2026, 12:03:10

Price looks roughly efficient for a low-probability tail event; wide spread and no clear catalyst justify waiting.

Yes ↓ -3% 5/28/2026, 12:01:10

Current Yes price is near fair value with a slight bearish lean, but the edge is small and liquidity/spread do not justify a decisive trade.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.