5/31/2026, 06:02:28 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
5.9¢
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the current airspace status and bearish tape, though edge is small because the market is already near floor pricing.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down 20% · ask depth > bid depth · no qualifying closure reported
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
70%
Price implies ~5.9% yes; recent drift is down and book shows asks outweigh bids. No fresh catalyst for a qualifying broad closure before expiry.
5/29/2026, 06:01:39 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
4.1¢
Price is already near the low end after a strong selloff; edge is small and liquidity is adequate, but there is no clear catalyst to justify a trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price already collapsed · No side dominates book · No closure catalyst visible
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
82%
Yes is priced around 4.1%, but no fresh evidence suggests an imminent broad Iran airspace closure. The market has already repriced sharply lower, and the book is slightly leaning to No.
5/28/2026, 00:02:03 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
12.7¢
Current Yes price around 0.127 looks a bit rich versus my estimate; downside is limited but the event is still unlikely before expiry.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price above implied fair value · 7d trend sharply lower · No side retains strong book support
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
63%
No remains strongly favored by the book and recent trend; Yes has drifted down on 1h/7d with no fresh closure catalyst. A broad Iran airspace shutdown by May 31 looks unlikely absent escalation.
5/27/2026, 00:01:33 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
13.4¢
Price appears close to fair given the recent selloff and no clear catalyst for a qualifying closure before expiry.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price down sharply · Ask depth exceeds bid depth · No fresh closure signal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
68%
The market has already repriced sharply down, but there is still limited evidence of an imminent broad Iranian airspace closure. Orderbook shows ask pressure and weak near-term momentum; current price still leaves some tail risk, but not enough for a positive edge.
5/25/2026, 00:01:18 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
30.8¢
Price is near fair value with mixed tape: recent yes strength is offset by lack of concrete closure evidence. Spread is tight, but edge is small and not enough for a clean buy or sell.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No official closure reported · Yes price near 31% · Recent short-term rebound
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-5% Confidence
68%
Market is pricing a modest closure risk, but absent a fresh official aviation notice the event still looks less likely than 31% implies. Recent short-term drift is up, yet orderbook depth and no clear escalation cap the yes case.
