Yes ↓ -1% 5/31/2026, 06:02:28
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the current airspace status and bearish tape, though edge is small because the market is already near floor pricing.
Unified market view
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 70%
Current price 5.9¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the current airspace status and bearish tape, though edge is small because the market is already near floor pricing.
Watch triggers
- 1w price down 20%
- ask depth > bid depth
- no qualifying closure reported
Why not now
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the current airspace status and bearish tape, though edge is small because the market is already near floor pricing.
Revisit when
1w price down 20% · ask depth > bid depth · no qualifying closure reported
Execution guard
Price 5.9¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $64,355. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:31
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
2.6¢Volume (24h) ?
$516,127Liquidity ?
$50,454Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.6¢Depth imbalance ?
38.5%Momentum ?
-42.4%Volatility ?
4.9%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Volatility too high
Rule notes
- High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
2¢ 3,008
1.9¢ 50
1.8¢ 50
1.6¢ 2,041.37
1.5¢ 5,000
Asks
2.6¢ 138
2.7¢ 961.62
2.8¢ 922
2.9¢ 1,130
3¢ 1,354.91
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:13:04 2.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:15:03 2.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 2.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 2.4¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 2.45¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 2.45¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 2.1¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 2.15¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 2.15¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 2.1¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 2.3¢
5/31/2026, 14:34:03 2.45¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 5/29/2026, 06:01:39
Price is already near the low end after a strong selloff; edge is small and liquidity is adequate, but there is no clear catalyst to justify a trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/28/2026, 00:02:03
Current Yes price around 0.127 looks a bit rich versus my estimate; downside is limited but the event is still unlikely before expiry.
Yes ↓ -4% 5/27/2026, 00:01:33
Price appears close to fair given the recent selloff and no clear catalyst for a qualifying closure before expiry.
Yes ↓ -5% 5/25/2026, 00:01:18
Price is near fair value with mixed tape: recent yes strength is offset by lack of concrete closure evidence. Spread is tight, but edge is small and not enough for a clean buy or sell.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · No 5/31/2026, 06:11:35
$5,063 93.39¢
Sell · No 5/31/2026, 03:30:45
$5,616 93.02¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 01:12:06
$6,948 95¢
Buy · No 5/31/2026, 00:47:06
$5,539 95¢