Yes ↓ -8% 6/12/2026, 18:01:34
The market appears slightly rich versus the low-probability, announcement-dependent resolution path. Orderbook and recent drift favor the downside.
Unified market view
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Action: Sell
Sell
Model edge Yes ↓ -8%
Confidence 67%
Current price 61¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market appears slightly rich versus the low-probability, announcement-dependent resolution path. Orderbook and recent drift favor the downside.
Watch triggers
- Best ask above current price
- No-side depth heavier
- Recent 1h/6h drift down
Action basis
The market appears slightly rich versus the low-probability, announcement-dependent resolution path. Orderbook and recent drift favor the downside.
Invalidation watch
Best ask above current price · No-side depth heavier · Recent 1h/6h drift down
Execution guard
Price 61¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $85,113. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/13/2026, 12:59:41
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
73¢Volume (24h) ?
$396,918Liquidity ?
$100,193Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-45.9%Momentum ?
13.6%Volatility ?
1.5%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
71¢ 15
70¢ 230.71
69¢ 1,708.68
68¢ 1,204.99
67¢ 1,319.87
Asks
72¢ 1,579.37
73¢ 3,836.63
74¢ 5,724.79
77¢ 144.81
78¢ 800
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/13/2026, 12:38:05 70.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:40:04 70¢
6/13/2026, 12:42:04 69.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:44:05 71.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:46:17 71.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:48:09 71.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:50:07 71.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:52:04 71.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:54:04 71.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:56:04 70.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:58:04 70.5¢
6/13/2026, 12:59:05 71¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 6/12/2026, 12:01:38
Current price looks a bit rich relative to the narrow resolution شرط and lack of clear catalyst for a formal lift announcement soon.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · No 6/13/2026, 11:20:46
$6,259 17.76¢
Buy · Yes 6/13/2026, 11:05:21
$8,061 64.54¢