5/31/2026, 12:01:52 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
71¢
The market appears slightly overpriced versus the low near-term likelihood of a formal permanent deal, and the orderbook does not show a strong bullish imbalance.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w price down 10 pts · 24h down 2 pts · balanced orderbook
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
71%
Price is elevated at 0.71 while recent trend has softened; no visible catalyst or official progress toward a durable US-Iran peace deal.
5/29/2026, 18:02:08 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
77¢
No clear edge at 0.77; upside is capped by the need for a formal lasting agreement and current pricing already embeds significant probability. Orderbook support is not enough to justify a fresh buy.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers High bar for resolution · Price already elevated · No definitive agreement signal
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
58%
The market is pricing a high bar for a permanent US-Iran peace deal. Recent drift is modestly down on 1d/6h, and while orderbook favors Yes slightly, the price already reflects substantial optimism with limited evidence of a definitive agreement.
5/29/2026, 00:01:43 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
78¢
The market appears overpricing a far-off diplomatic outcome with limited evidence of durable agreement progress. Orderbook and short-term trend both favor fading the current yes price.
Triggers Best ask 0.78 vs bid 0.77 · No sustained bullish momentum · Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
63%
Price at 0.78 looks rich versus the still-low likelihood of a durable US-Iran permanent peace deal by 2026. Recent 1h/1d action is flat to slightly down, and the ask side is heavier than the bid despite overall yes-side depth.
5/28/2026, 06:01:09 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
78¢
The market already prices a high chance of peace, while available signals are mostly flow/price-based rather than event-driven. No clear edge justifies buying or selling aggressively.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No confirmed peace announcement · Price already elevated · Tight spread, good liquidity
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
68%
Yes is priced near 0.78 with strong liquidity and tight spread, but no concrete signs of an imminent permanent US-Iran peace deal. Recent 24h drift down also suggests modest downside from current price.
5/26/2026, 06:01:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
82¢
Yes trades near 0.82 with bullish momentum, but the event requires a formal lasting peace deal and current evidence does not justify that probability. The high price leaves limited upside and favor...
Triggers Yes at 0.82 · No clear deal announced · Definition requires lasting agreement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
64%
Price implies a fairly high chance of a permanent deal, but the market is still speculative and there is no evidence of definitive US-Iran adoption. Strong upward momentum and bid support suggest optimism, yet that looks stretched versus the thin probability of a fully qualifying agreement by deadline.
