Yes ↓ -3% 5/31/2026, 12:01:52
The market appears slightly overpriced versus the low near-term likelihood of a formal permanent deal, and the orderbook does not show a strong bullish imbalance.
Unified market view
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 71%
Current price 71¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market appears slightly overpriced versus the low near-term likelihood of a formal permanent deal, and the orderbook does not show a strong bullish imbalance.
Watch triggers
- 1w price down 10 pts
- 24h down 2 pts
- balanced orderbook
Why not now
The market appears slightly overpriced versus the low near-term likelihood of a formal permanent deal, and the orderbook does not show a strong bullish imbalance.
Revisit when
1w price down 10 pts · 24h down 2 pts · balanced orderbook
Execution guard
Price 71¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $351,698. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:37:26
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
71¢Volume (24h) ?
$113,062Liquidity ?
$313,797Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-1.3%Momentum ?
1.4%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
70¢ 1,179.48
69¢ 125,277.06
68¢ 22,305.4
67¢ 7,595.5
66¢ 711.89
Asks
71¢ 76,198.78
72¢ 15,675.59
73¢ 64,026.23
74¢ 936.84
75¢ 4,236.42
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:15:08 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:06 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:04 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:05 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:04 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:05 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:07 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:04 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:05 70.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:36:03 70.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 5/29/2026, 18:02:08
No clear edge at 0.77; upside is capped by the need for a formal lasting agreement and current pricing already embeds significant probability. Orderbook support is not enough to justify a fresh buy.
Yes ↓ -8% 5/29/2026, 00:01:43
The market appears overpricing a far-off diplomatic outcome with limited evidence of durable agreement progress. Orderbook and short-term trend both favor fading the current yes price.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/28/2026, 06:01:09
The market already prices a high chance of peace, while available signals are mostly flow/price-based rather than event-driven. No clear edge justifies buying or selling aggressively.
Yes ↓ -8% 5/26/2026, 06:01:46
Yes trades near 0.82 with bullish momentum, but the event requires a formal lasting peace deal and current evidence does not justify that probability. The high price leaves limited upside and favor...
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 5/31/2026, 06:21:54
$5,536 30¢