6/12/2026, 12:02:02 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
10¢
No clear edge at 10% Yes and liquidity/spread are fine; recent selling supports No, but the contract already prices a low-probability tail event.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.10 implies low base rate · 1d/1w price trend down · Order book slightly favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
68%
Market implies ~10% Yes. Price action is weak over 1d/1w and the book is slightly tilted against Yes; absent a clear geopolitical catalyst, closure remains unlikely.
6/10/2026, 12:01:42 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
31¢
The market has momentum upward, but the new move looks sentiment-driven rather than supported by a fresh closure signal. With limited edge versus the current bid/ask, holding is preferable.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price up to 0.315 · 7d rally from 0.165 to 0.33 · No confirmed closure announcement
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
72%
Price has risen sharply to 0.31, but there is no direct evidence of an imminent official airspace closure. Market is reacting to elevated geopolitical risk, yet current level already prices a meaningful chance of a broad closure.
6/10/2026, 00:01:45 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
26¢
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the low likelihood of a qualifying broad closure and the bearish orderbook pressure on Yes.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid depth is thin · No side has stronger support · Yes has drifted down recently
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
67%
Market implies ~26%, but price action and book favor No; Yes has weak bid depth and recent drift down from the week’s highs. No clear catalyst suggests a broad Israeli airspace closure by June 30.
6/9/2026, 06:01:22 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
21¢
Current price is already low and the book is slightly skewed to No; absent a concrete escalation or official aviation notice, there is no clear positive edge on Yes.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price fell 0.435 in 1d · No has stronger bid depth · Spread is modest but edge unclear
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
65%
Market prices Yes near 0.21, but recent sharp drop and No-side bid dominance suggest the closure risk is still being discounted and no fresh catalyst supports an immediate Yes.
6/8/2026, 12:00:48 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
26¢
The Yes price has fallen fast over 1h/6h and sits below recent averages; there is no clear catalyst for an Israel-wide airspace closure before expiry.
Triggers Yes price dropped from ~0.48 to 0.26 in 1h · 6h trend remains strongly negative · No side has stronger book and price support
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-8% Confidence
74%
Yes is trading around 0.26, but recent momentum is down sharply and the order book leans against further upside. No appears more consistent with the current information and lack of closure signals.
