Yes ↓ -2% 6/12/2026, 12:02:02
No clear edge at 10% Yes and liquidity/spread are fine; recent selling supports No, but the contract already prices a low-probability tail event.
Unified market view
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 68%
Current price 10¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge at 10% Yes and liquidity/spread are fine; recent selling supports No, but the contract already prices a low-probability tail event.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.10 implies low base rate
- 1d/1w price trend down
- Order book slightly favors No
Why not now
No clear edge at 10% Yes and liquidity/spread are fine; recent selling supports No, but the contract already prices a low-probability tail event.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.10 implies low base rate · 1d/1w price trend down · Order book slightly favors No
Execution guard
Price 10¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $53,636. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:20:35
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
9¢Volume (24h) ?
$45,911Liquidity ?
$79,712Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
15.1%Momentum ?
-10.5%Volatility ?
0.8%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
8¢ 4,373.27
7¢ 18,980.43
6¢ 35,740.03
5¢ 1,358.81
4¢ 1,645.1
Asks
9¢ 1,627
10¢ 5,046.83
11¢ 36,047.55
12¢ 2,587
13¢ 532.13
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/13/2026, 12:59:05 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:01:04 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:03:05 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:05:04 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:07:04 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:09:23 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:11:08 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:13:05 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:15:06 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:17:05 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:19:05 8.5¢
6/13/2026, 13:20:04 8.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 6/10/2026, 12:01:42
The market has momentum upward, but the new move looks sentiment-driven rather than supported by a fresh closure signal. With limited edge versus the current bid/ask, holding is preferable.
Yes ↓ -3% 6/10/2026, 00:01:45
Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the low likelihood of a qualifying broad closure and the bearish orderbook pressure on Yes.
Yes ↓ -3% 6/9/2026, 06:01:22
Current price is already low and the book is slightly skewed to No; absent a concrete escalation or official aviation notice, there is no clear positive edge on Yes.
Yes ↓ -8% 6/8/2026, 12:00:48
The Yes price has fallen fast over 1h/6h and sits below recent averages; there is no clear catalyst for an Israel-wide airspace closure before expiry.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.