5/31/2026, 12:02:03 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
26.1¢
Current price near 0.26 looks fairly efficient; recent momentum is positive, but there is no clear new trigger for a qualifying closure and liquidity/spread are only moderate.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1d price up to 0.259 · No confirmed new closure notice · Spread remains 2.6%
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
58%
Price has risen sharply over 24h, but the market still prices only a modest chance of a qualifying broad closure. Given ongoing regional risk, a small upside edge remains, though the spread and lack of fresh catalyst limit conviction.
5/31/2026, 06:01:47 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
22.3¢
No clear edge at current pricing; the market already implies a modest chance, and orderbook/history do not show a strong catalyst or imbalance to justify an aggressive entry.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask only slightly above last trade · Recent 1h/6h drift is weak · Orderbook imbalance is near balanced
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
64%
Yes trades near 0.223 vs a low expected probability; the event requires an official broad airspace closure, and recent price action has drifted down despite modest book support.
5/31/2026, 00:01:32 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
22.4¢
Yes appears overpriced versus the absence of confirmed closure triggers; fading the recent uptick offers slight value.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No verified broad closure reports · Price has risen without clear catalyst · Orderbook favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-7% Confidence
66%
Market price near 0.224 implies a modest Yes chance, but there is no fresh evidence of a broad Iran airspace closure. Recent price rise looks momentum-driven, while the structural default remains No.
5/30/2026, 12:02:27 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
22¢
Price has fallen materially over the week and orderbook favors No; with no clear closure catalyst, the current Yes price still looks a bit rich.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near 0.22 · 1w down sharply · No-side orderbook depth dominant
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
64%
Current price implies ~22% yes. Recent sharp drawdown and persistent low-end trading suggest the market expects no qualifying broad closure; absent active escalation, yes looks overpriced.
5/26/2026, 00:02:12 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
35.1¢
Current price near fair value with mixed momentum and no decisive news catalyst; liquidity is decent but not enough edge to buy or sell.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Recent drop in Yes price · No official closure signal in summary · Strict resolution criteria reduce likelihood
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
68%
Price already implies a modest chance of closure, but the broad, date-bound qualifying standard is strict and recent trading is leaning toward No. No clear evidence of an imminent official shutdown is provided.
