Yes ↑ +1% 5/31/2026, 12:02:03
Current price near 0.26 looks fairly efficient; recent momentum is positive, but there is no clear new trigger for a qualifying closure and liquidity/spread are only moderate.
Unified market view
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Hold: Risky tape
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 58%
Current price 26.1¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current price near 0.26 looks fairly efficient; recent momentum is positive, but there is no clear new trigger for a qualifying closure and liquidity/spread are only moderate.
Watch triggers
- 1d price up to 0.259
- No confirmed new closure notice
- Spread remains 2.6%
Why not now
Current price near 0.26 looks fairly efficient; recent momentum is positive, but there is no clear new trigger for a qualifying closure and liquidity/spread are only moderate.
Revisit when
1d price up to 0.259 · No confirmed new closure notice · Spread remains 2.6%
Execution guard
Price 26.1¢ · spread 2.6 pts · liquidity $29,431. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:38:45
Signal
SellBest ask ?
23¢Volume (24h) ?
$116,477Liquidity ?
$28,865Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1.7¢Depth imbalance ?
-27.6%Momentum ?
-2.6%Volatility ?
2.9%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
21.3¢ 30
21.2¢ 10
21.1¢ 15
21¢ 6
20.4¢ 10
Asks
23¢ 6
24.5¢ 10
25¢ 45.96
26.9¢ 20
27.9¢ 43.13
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 21.45¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 21.55¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 22¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 22.3¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 22.1¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 22.2¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 22.3¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 22.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 22.35¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 22.15¢
5/31/2026, 14:37:03 22.15¢
5/31/2026, 14:38:04 22.15¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -1% 5/31/2026, 06:01:47
No clear edge at current pricing; the market already implies a modest chance, and orderbook/history do not show a strong catalyst or imbalance to justify an aggressive entry.
Yes ↓ -7% 5/31/2026, 00:01:32
Yes appears overpriced versus the absence of confirmed closure triggers; fading the recent uptick offers slight value.
Yes ↓ -6% 5/30/2026, 12:02:27
Price has fallen materially over the week and orderbook favors No; with no clear closure catalyst, the current Yes price still looks a bit rich.
Yes ↓ -1% 5/26/2026, 00:02:12
Current price near fair value with mixed momentum and no decisive news catalyst; liquidity is decent but not enough edge to buy or sell.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.