Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
45¢
Small bearish edge on Yes at current price with decent liquidity and tight spread, but no strong conviction.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.45 with edge negative · Orderbook favors No · 1w trend down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
63%
Price implies ~45%; orderbook slightly favors No and recent trend is flat-to-down. With no clear catalyst for a ceasefire agreement by 2026, Yes looks modestly overpriced.